Bayan Markets
Mid Week Report
Mid-week update
The purpose of the update is to review developments since the weekly report was issued and to determine whether the baseline scenarios for the ten markets remain valid, or require adjustment, cancellation, or a change in the level of confidence.
Gold — XAUUSD .1
Original Weekly Scenario: Bullish | Original Confidence Level: 68%
Key decision zone: 4455; an H4 close above 4470 or a successful retest of the 4445 area is required to trigger the bullish scenario. Initial targets: 4515, followed by 4555 and 4595; conversely, an H4 close below 4380 invalidates the primary scenario.
Why do midweek updates matter?
The task for Tuesday is to determine whether new developments regarding US interest rate expectations, geopolitical risks, and price action have reinforced or undermined the original thesis.
Mid-week decision:
The base scenario remains in play provided gold holds the 4380 level and successfully confirms a breakout above the 4455–4470 zone.
Action:
No change to the targets prior to the activation condition being met.
2. Brent Crude - UKOIL
Original weekly scenario: Buy | Original confidence level: 66%
The report identifies 90.06 as the primary decision zone, with activation requiring the price to hold above 90.06 and an H4 close above this level. The scenario also requires a successful retest of the 90.06–91.36 zone, with targets at 91.36, then 92.87, and finally 96.00.
Why do midweek updates matter?
This is because the scenario relies heavily on developments in the Strait of Hormuz and supply risks, whereas rising US inventories and progress in negotiations act as counterbalancing factors.
3. Sterling/Dollar — GBP/USD
Original weekly scenario: Buy | Original confidence level: 67%
The primary trigger condition is an H4 close above 1.3555, followed by a successful retest, with targets at 1.3585, 1.3605, and 1.3625.
Why do midweek updates matter?
This is because the report based part of the pound’s advantage on the decline in expectations for US interest rate hikes and the Bank of England’s continued relative hawkishness.
4. Australian Dollar/US Dollar — AUD/USD
Original Weekly Scenario: Buy | Original Confidence Level: 69%
The key decision zone is 0.7088. Activation occurs upon an H4 close above this level followed by a retest; the targets are 0.7115, followed by 0.7145 and 0.7170.
Why do midweek updates matter?
We review any new statements from the RBA, shifts in US interest rate expectations, and any significant developments regarding China and commodities.
Mid-week decision:
The base scenario remains in play as long as the 0.7027 level holds. An H4 close below this level would trigger a review of the alternative bearish scenario.
5. Euro/Dollar — EUR/USD
Original weekly scenario: Buy with caution | Original confidence level: 63%
Activation occurs above 1.1563, with targets at 1.1600 and 1.1625.
Why do mid-week updates matter?
Because the initial outlook hinges on receding expectations for US interest rate hikes set against rising German inflation, yet the report itself noted a loss of momentum.
Mid-week decision:
Conditional; do not chase the buy. We need an H4 close above 1.1563 to confirm the scenario. A break below 1.1504 triggers a reassessment towards a bearish corrective scenario.
6. US Dollar/Canadian Dollar — USDCAD
Original Weekly Scenario: Sell | Original Confidence Level: 71%
The primary selling zone is at the 1.3960–1.4000 retest, provided a bearish rejection occurs; targets are 1.3950, followed by 1.3920 and 1.3890.
Why do midweek updates matter?
This pair is highly sensitive to two variables: the US dollar and oil. The continued rise in oil prices, combined with a weak dollar, reinforces the original scenario on both fronts.
Mid-week decision: The bearish scenario remains in play.
A 4-hour (H4) close above 1.4030 is the signal that would require a re-evaluation.
7. Dollar/Yen — USDJPY
Original Weekly Scenario: Sell | Original Confidence Level: 61%
The report views the rise from 155.226 as a corrective move within the larger bearish wave, with pivotal resistance at 159.80–160.60.
Why do midweek updates matter?
This is one of the most critical markets to monitor, as any shift in Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan expectations—or intervention by Japanese authorities—can trigger violent price swings.
⚠ The risk of Japanese intervention remains, so technical signals alone are not enough.
Mid-week decision: High-risk watch.
Failure of the price at the 159.80–160.60 level keeps selling as the preferred scenario.
An H4 close above 161.00 necessitates cancelling the current bearish scenario and re-evaluating.
8. Sterling/Yen — GBPJPY
Original weekly scenario: Buy | Original confidence level: 60%
The initial trigger is an H4 close above 215.85, with targets at 216.45 and then 217.15.
Why do midweek updates matter?
We have two opposing forces: the yield spread supports the pound, while the risk of Japanese intervention unexpectedly supports the yen.
Mid-week decision: Conditional.
The bullish scenario remains valid but carries high risk.
A 4-hour close below 214.50 necessitates shifting to consider the bearish scenario.
9. Euro/Australian Dollar — EURAUD
Original Weekly Scenario: Sell | Original Confidence Level: 70%
The report favors the Australian dollar, with a selling zone upon a retest of 1.6340–1.6345 and signs of rejection on the H4 timeframe.
Targets are 1.6305, followed by 1.6280 and 1.6250.
Why do mid-week updates matter?
This pair is excellent for measuring the relative change between ECB and RBA expectations, without the noise of the US dollar.
Mid-week decision: Remains in effect.
The bearish scenario holds as long as the price remains below 1.6345.
A strong move back above 1.6410 would clearly weaken the primary thesis.
10. Canadian Dollar/Japanese Yen — CADJPY
Original Weekly Scenario: Buy | Original Confidence Level: 68%
Activation occurs upon an H4 close above 114.74, with targets at 115.25 and then 115.60.
Why do mid-week updates matter?
The pair combines oil, the Canadian dollar, the Bank of Japan, and the risk of yen intervention; consequently, its equation can shift rapidly.
Mid-week outlook: Conditional.
The bullish scenario holds if the price maintains the 114.00 level and breaks above 114.74.
A break below 114.00—accompanied by a drop in oil prices or a sudden surge in the yen—would necessitate an immediate reassessment of the scenario.