XAU/USD — Gold
Weekly Outlook | H4 Timeframe
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Confidence
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Scenario Invalidation
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Activation Condition
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Market Status
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Bias
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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70%
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· A price return and H4 close below 4380.
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· A clear H4 close above 4420, or a successful retest of the zone after the breakout.
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· Awaiting Activation
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· Buy
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Executive Summary
Gold is trading near US$4,377 and attempting to recover after a downward correction from the 4,445 area, followed by a clear rebound from the 4,310 low. The broader H4 structure remains positive. The 4,380 level represents the key test and decision point, while a break above 4,460 would refocus attention on liquidity near 4,515. The 4,302 level remains the support preserving the bullish scenario.
Fundamental Picture
Gold is benefiting from renewed pressure on the U.S. dollar, with the Dollar Index falling below 100 as markets continue to reassess the outlook for U.S. debt and the fiscal deficit.
Fibonacci Map
The move is measured from the 4,449.830 high to the 3,996.055 low.
· 23.6% at 4,342.739
· 38.2% at 4,276.488
· 50.0% at 4,222.943
H4 Technical View
Gold maintains a bullish structure after the strong advance from the 3,996 area and a series of bullish breaks of structure (BOS) toward the 4,445 zone.
Liquidity and Institutional Zones
Primary buy-side liquidity is concentrated above 4,515, with nearer liquidity above recent highs around 4,470. An order block (OB) near 4,445 forms the main institutional resistance before the higher liquidity objective. The nearest sell-side liquidity is concentrated at 4,302, aligned with the upper boundary of a fair value gap (FVG) extending to 4,267.
A deeper fair value gap exists between 4,086 and 4,135 and may become a demand zone if a broader correction develops. Holding above 4,302 preserves the bullish preference, while a break below it would open the way toward 4,276 and then 4,221.
Primary Scenario
· Direction: Buy
· Activation: A clear H4 close above 4,420, or a successful retest after the breakout.
· Targets: TP1 4,455 | TP2 4,510 | TP3 4,555
· Invalidation: A return and H4 close below 4,380.
· Confidence: 70%
Rationale: The bullish structure remains intact, price has rebounded from sell-side liquidity near 4,302, and the fundamental backdrop continues to be supported by U.S. dollar weakness and U.S. fiscal pressures.
Alternative Scenario
· Direction: Corrective Sell — High Risk
· Activation: A break below 4,380 on an H4 close following an advance.
· Targets: TP1 4,343 | TP2 4,302 | TP3 4,276
· Invalidation: A return and close above 4,445.
· Confidence: 30%
Rationale: Institutional resistance near 4,445, combined with weaker RSI and MACD momentum after a strong rally, creates the possibility of a correction. The broader trend nevertheless remains bullish. Confirmation requires a failure to close above 4,445 and a clear rejection, such as a long upper wick.
Execution and Risk-Management Rules
Suggested risk per trade: 1% preferred, with a maximum of 2%. Do not chase price if it moves away from the entry zone, and do not widen the stop loss after entering a trade.
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Impact
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Event
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Time
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|---|---|---|
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High
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USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI
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05:45
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|
High
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USD | Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes
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10:00
|
|
High
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USD | Unemployment Claims
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04:30
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|
High
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USD | Flash Services PMI
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05:45
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